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Probability is especially important in statistics because of the many principles and procedures based upon this concept. Indeed, probability plays a special role in all our lives, because we use it to measure uncertainty. We are continually faced with decisions leading to uncertain outcomes, and we rely on probability to help us make our choice. Think of the planned outdoor activities, such as picnics or boating, you canceled because the chance of bad weather seemed too likely. Remember those nights before examinations when you decided not to study some topics, because they probably would not be covered on the test?
A probability is a numerical value that measures the uncertainty that a particular event will occur. The probability of an event ordinarily represents the proportion of times under identical circumstances that the outcome can be expected to occur. We refer to this value as the event’s long-run frequency of occurrence. The probability that the head side will slow when a fair coin is tossed is 1/2. This can be verified experimentally by tossing a coin several times and observing that “heads” occur about one-half of those times. Read the rest of this entry »
Defining Management (Chapter 1 Part 1)
When I walk around in the library, I found the book from James F. Stoner. That book has a title “Management” published by Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 07632 in years 1978. The book has 24 chapter 683 pages including Name Index and Subject Index.
Alright now I invite you to discover the Chapter One about Managing and Managers. This chapter has 7 parts, let’s discusses one by one starting from Defining Management.
Like many areas of study that involve people, management is quit difficult to define. In fact we know that no definition of management has been universally accepted. But Stoner said that there was one popular definition is by Mary Parker Follett: Management, she says, is “the art of getting things done through people.” That is the keywords “Through the other people”. This definition calls attention to the fact that managers achieve their goals by arranging for others to perform whatever tasks may be necessary – not by performing the task by them self.
From that simply explanation we could know that Management is the process of planning, organizing, leading, and controlling the efforts of organizational members and the use of other organizational resources in order to achieve stated organizational goals.
Planning means that managers or leaders thinking their action through in advance.
Organizing means that managers or leaders do coordinate the human and material resources of the organization.
Leading means that managers or leaders direct and influence subordinates.
Controlling means that managers or leaders attempt to assure that the organization is moving toward its goals.
Finally my definition is that management involves achieving the organizations “stated goals”. This means that managers or leaders of any organization try to attain specific ends. This ends will, of course will vary and different with each organizations. Whatever the stated goals of a particular organization, management is the process by which the goals are achieved. It is exactly what done Mary Parker said about “Getting things done through people”.
Gorge Udny Yule said:
“Measurement does not necessarily mean progress. Failing the possibility of measuring that which you desire, the lust for measurement may, for example, merely result in your measuring something else-and perhaps forgetting the difference- or in ignoring some things because they cannot be measured…”
We have said that descriptive statistics involves the arrangment and display of observed data, which are then summarize and analyzed by means of inferential statistics in order to reach some decision. The manner in which the data are described and the procedures followed for their analysis depend upon the decision-making goal and the nature of the data.
The weight of a sample of 40 statistic students in STIE DEWANTARA BOGOR is shown in table 1 below. If we wish to describe this sample, how should we proceed?
Table 1
_______________________________
Weight of 40 Statistic Students
in STIE DEWANTARA BOGOR
________________________________
78 72 74 79 74 71 75 74 72 68
72 73 72 74 75 74 73 74 65 72
66 75 80 69 82 73 74 72 79 71
70 75 71 70 70 70 75 76 77 67
_________________________________
These are the steps how to proceed that data to become Frequency Distribution.
1. Arrange the data
Table 2
_______________________________
Weight of 40 Statistic Students
in STIE DEWANTARA BOGOR
________________________________
65 66 67 68 69 70 70 70 70 71
71 71 72 72 72 72 72 72 73 73
73 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 75 75
75 75 75 76 77 78 79 79 80 82
_________________________________
2. Range (R) = 82 – 65 = 17
3. Sum of the class (k) =
k = 1 + 3,3 log n (Sturgess Way)
k = 1 + 3,3 log 40
= 1 + 5,3 = 6,3 = 6
4. Class interval (i) :
i = 17/6 = 2,83 = 3
Here is the results shown on the table 3 below:
Table 3
Frequency Distributions
Weight of 40 Statistic Students
in STIE DEWANTARA BOGOR
____________________________________
Weight (Kg) Frequency
———————————————————–
65 – 67 3
68 – 70 6
71 – 73 12
74 – 76 13
77 – 79 4
80 – 82 2
——————————————————
TOTAL 40
__________________________________
Hopefully this article can be useful to helps you studying Statistics…
See you next time… 
The emphasis upon the decision-makin aspects of statistics is a recent one. In its early years, the study of statistics largerly consisted of methodology for summarizing or describing numerical data. Any aspects facilitating choice were secondary in importance to the then essentially reportorial nature of the subject. Tis area of study has become known as descriptive statistics because it is concerned largerly with summary calculations and graphical displays. These methods are in contrast with the modern approach, where generalizations are made about the whole, called the population, by investigating a portion, reffered to as the sample.
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Use the expressions to fill in the blanks
My name’s———- What’s ——————— What should I call you?
Just call me ——– I’m ————————- What do you do?
Are you ready? lets do it!
At a book fair:
boeditea : Nice-looking book
Chi-chi : It’s free. You can get it there
boeditea : Wow it’s so cool. By the way, …………….. boeditea.
Chi-chi : Nice to meet you, Boeditea. I’m Chi-chi
boeditea: Nice to meet you too, Chi-chi
Chi-chi : ………………… Echi
boeditea : So …………………Echi?
Chi-chi : ………………………….a student. How about you?
boeditea : i’m a teacher
A. Pendahuluan
Salah satu langkah dalam penelitian ilmiah adalah menentukan populasi dan sample. Kesalahan dalam menentukan sampel dapat berakibat fatal, karena sampel menjadi tidak representatif, dan hasil penelitian tidak akan dapat mencerminkan keadaan yang sebenarnya. Oleh karena itu memilih tenik penentuan sampel yang tepat menjadi sangat penting untuk mendapatkan sampel yang representatif.
B. Pengertian Populasi Dan Sampel
Dalam suatu penelitian adakalanya peneliti meneliti semua sumber data yang direncanakan, agar data dan informasi yang diperoleh banyak dan bervariasi sehingga diharapkan hasilnya tidak jauh berbeda dari kenyataan. Akan tetapi dalam kenyataannya tidak semua populasi dapat diteliti karena suatu sebab yang tidak memungkinkan. Penelitian ilmiah boleh dikata hampir selalu hanya dilakukan terhadap sebagian saja dari hal-hal yang sebenarnya hendak diteliti.
Populasi adalah wilayah generalisasi yang terdiri atas obyek/subyek yang mempunyai kuantitas dan karakteristik tertentu yang ditetapkan oleh peneliti untuk dipelajari dan kemudian ditarik kesimpulannya. Jadi populasi bukan hanya orang, tetapi juga benda-benda alam lain. Populasi juga bukan sekedar jumlah yang ada pada obyek/subyek yang dipelajari, tetapi meliputi seluruh karakteristik/sifat yang dimiliki oleh subyek atau obyek itu.
Misalnya akan dilakukan penelitian di lembaga X, maka lembaga X ini merupakan populasi. Lembaga X mempunyai sejumlah orang/subyek dan obyek yang lain. Hal ini berarti populasi dalam arti jumlah/kuantitas. Tetapi lermbaga X juga mempunyai karakteristik orang-orangnya, misalnya motivasi kerjanya, disiplin kerjanya, kepemimpinannya, iklim organisasinya dan lain-lain. Juga mempunyai karakteristik obyek yang lain, misalnya kebijakan, prosedur kerja, tata ruang produk yang dihasilkan dan lain-lain. Yang terakhir berarti populasi dalam arti karakteristik. Satu orangpun dapat digunakan sebagai populasi, karena satu orang mempunyai berbagai karakteristik, misalnya gaya bicaranya, disiplin pribadi, hobi, cara bergaul, kepemimpinannya dan lain-lain. Misalnya akan melakukan penelitian tentang kepemimpinan presiden Y, maka kepemimpinan itu merupakan sample dari semua karakteristik yang dimiliki presiden Y. Jadi sample adalah bagian dari jumlah dan karakteristik yang dimiliki oleh populasi ( Sugiyono, 2002:57 ).
C. Penggunaan Populasi dan Sampel
Job analysis traditionally was done for purposes connected with recruitment, pay, administration, and supervision. But the increasing complexity of work has made job analysis an important instrument for developing people in organizations. Job analysis requires a systematic collection, evaluation, and organization of information about the job. This information is collected through interviews, mailed questionnaires, observation, study of records, and similar methods. The collected information becomes a basis for preparing job descriptions and specifications. The job description, or job profile, is a written statement which includes detailed specifications of duties to be performed, responsibilities, and working conditions and indicates what is expected of a job holder. A job specification is a profile of the human characteristics needed for the job, such as education, training, skills, experience, and physical and mental abilities (Werther & Davis, 1982).
Extension organizations in developing countries do not have clearly defined job descriptions or job specifications for extension personnel. The training and visit system of extension considerably improved the preparation of job charts, work plans, and time-bound work for different categories of extension personnel. However, the actual utility of job descriptions in extension organizations is complicated by factors such as work overload, seasonality of extension, the range of cropping systems, and distribution of extension service over a large area (Hayward, 1990). Studies analysing the role of extension agents reveal that they face work-related problems such as role ambiguity and lack of job authority, expertise, and accountability (Vijayaragavan & Singh, 1989). This shows that job analysis is needed to improve the performance and effectiveness of extension employees. Job analysis can more effectively contribute towards the development of extension personnel by adopting the following procedures which involve identifying key performance areas (KPAs) and critical attributes.
Managing people effectively in extension programmes is a skill that requires constant planning and development. An extension programme manager can be defined as the person who is vested with formal authority over an organization or one of its sub units. He or she has status that leads to various interpersonal relations, and from this comes access to information. Information, in turn, enables the manager to devise strategies, make decisions, and implement action (Mintzberg, 1988). Management is concerned with the optimum attainment of organizational goals and objectives with and through other people. Extension management organizations are characterized by many strategies, wide spans of control, democracy, and autonomy. Their management practices cannot be reduced to one standard set of operating guidelines that will work for all organizations continually. However, all managers of professional organizations face the same challenge: to manage one’s time, objectives, and resources in order to accomplish tasks and implement ideas (Waldron, 1994).
Managers of extension programmes are painfully aware of the need for revision and development of the new skill sets held by today’s high performers. If change is not handled correctly, it can be more devastating then ever before. High performers reflect, discover, assess, and act. They know that a new focus on connecting the heads, hearts, and hands of people in their organization is necessary. Astute managers know what needs to be done but struggle with how to do it. Quite often they prefer to consider themselves as teachers or communicators rather than managers. This results in under-utilization of the increasing amount of literature on management theory and practice. The root of the problem is implementation. They must learn how to motivate others and build an efficient team.
More formally defined, management is the process by which people, technology, job tasks, and other resources are combined and coordinated so as to effectively achieve organizational objectives. A process or function is a group of related activities contributing to a larger action. Management functions are based on a common philosophy and approach. They centre around the following:
1. Developing and clarifying mission, policies, and objectives of the agency or organization2. Establishing formal and informal organizational structures as a means of delegating authority and sharing responsibilities
3. Setting priorities and reviewing and revising objectives in terms of changing demands
4. Maintaining effective communications within the working group, with other groups, and with the larger community
5. Selecting, motivating, training, and appraising staff
6. Securing funds and managing budgets; evaluating accomplishments and
7. Being accountable to staff, the larger enterprise, and to the community at large (Waldron, 1994b).
The management functions listed above can be categorized by using the acronym POSDCORB (Bonoma & Slevin, 1978, from Gulick & Urwick, 1959):
· Planning: outlining philosophy, policy, objectives, and resultant things to be accomplished, and the techniques for accomplishment· Organizing: establishing structures and systems through which activities are arranged, defined, and coordinated in terms of some specific objectives
· Staffing: fulfilling the personnel function, which includes selecting and training staff and maintaining favourable work conditions
· Directing: making decisions, embodying decisions in instructions, and serving as the leader of the enterprise
· Coordinating: interrelating the various parts of the work
· Reporting: keeping those to whom you are responsible, including both staff and public, informed
· Budgeting: making financial plans, maintaining accounting and management control of revenue, and keeping costs in line with objectives
